NBR Poll - how it looks for electorates
Following on from my post on 17 April, here is how the election results would look by electorate based on the NBR Poll.
Election Outcome
124 MPs are elected (Jim Anderton and 3 Maori Party MPs create the overhang)
Labour retains:
Aoraki, Auckland Central, Banks Peninsula, Chch Central, Chch East, Dunedin North, Dunedin South, East Coast, Hamilton West, Hutt South, Invercargill, Mana, Mangere, Manukau East, Manurewa, Maungakiekie, Mt Albert, Mt Roskill, Napier, New Lynn, New Plymouth, Northcote, Otaki, Palmerston North, Rimutaka, Rongotai, Rotorua, Taupo, Te Atutu, Tukituki, Waimakariri, Wairarapa, Waitakere, Wellington Central, West Coast-Tasman.
National will win off Labour:
Hamilton East, Otago
National to retain:
Bay of Plenty, Clevedon, Clutha-Southland, Coromandel, East Coast Bays, Epsom, Helensville, Ilam, Kaikoura, Nelson, North Shore, Northland, Pakuranga, Piako, Port Waikato, Rakaia, Rangitikei, Rodney, Tamaki, Taranaki-King Country, Whangarei
Labour will win off National:
None
Too close to call
Whanganui (Labour leads by less than 1%)
Incumbent Third Parties to win:
Wigram (Jim Anderton, Progressive)
Ohariu-Belmont (Peter Dunne, United Future)
Tauranga (Winston Peters, NZ First)
Te Tai Hauauru (Tariana Turia, Maori Party)
Election Outcome
124 MPs are elected (Jim Anderton and 3 Maori Party MPs create the overhang)
Labour retains:
Aoraki, Auckland Central, Banks Peninsula, Chch Central, Chch East, Dunedin North, Dunedin South, East Coast, Hamilton West, Hutt South, Invercargill, Mana, Mangere, Manukau East, Manurewa, Maungakiekie, Mt Albert, Mt Roskill, Napier, New Lynn, New Plymouth, Northcote, Otaki, Palmerston North, Rimutaka, Rongotai, Rotorua, Taupo, Te Atutu, Tukituki, Waimakariri, Wairarapa, Waitakere, Wellington Central, West Coast-Tasman.
National will win off Labour:
Hamilton East, Otago
National to retain:
Bay of Plenty, Clevedon, Clutha-Southland, Coromandel, East Coast Bays, Epsom, Helensville, Ilam, Kaikoura, Nelson, North Shore, Northland, Pakuranga, Piako, Port Waikato, Rakaia, Rangitikei, Rodney, Tamaki, Taranaki-King Country, Whangarei
Labour will win off National:
None
Too close to call
Whanganui (Labour leads by less than 1%)
Incumbent Third Parties to win:
Wigram (Jim Anderton, Progressive)
Ohariu-Belmont (Peter Dunne, United Future)
Tauranga (Winston Peters, NZ First)
Te Tai Hauauru (Tariana Turia, Maori Party)
posted by Michael at
9:23 AM
3 Comments:
Hey just one comment I may be a Right winger, but I'm from Wanganui and I know for a fact that there is no way any candidate National stands will beat Jill Pettis she has too much support so don't even bother with too close to call just give her the seat
By
Jono, at 6:31 PM
I neglected of course to put in the new National Electorate MPs:
Otago: Jacqui Dean
Hamilton East: David Bennett
Kaikoura: Colin King
All the rest are incumbents.
By
Michael, at 1:28 PM
Jono - This is based on poll results using the old FPP 'needle' swing.
It doesn't take into account the 'Nick Smith' factor where a local candidate can be more popular than the national party. Wellington Central for example has Labour with a 9% lead in my calculations but with Mark Blumsky standing it will be much closer.
It also doesn't take into account third parties - there was no ACT or NZ First candidate in Whanganui last time round, which would have boosted Chester Burrows vote by about 1000 votes.
Anyone using these results should take them with a grain of salt.
By
Michael, at 1:33 PM
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