One News Poll - 15 May 2005
And it's Deja Vu all over again.
Based on the One News poll my modeling shows Otago and Hamilton East will be won by National off Labour and Whanganui is within 1% of changing sides (that is less than 300 votes). It would be a major effort to
Candidates on the Labour Party list down to number 48 would be elected to Parliament - Labour's new MPs will be:
Maryan Street
Steven Ching
Sue Moronrey
Darien Fenton
Charles Chauvel
Louisa Wall
Su'a William
I can't name National's 23 new MPs because the list has not been published. With three new MPs and all existing MPs being returned it would mean any candidate ranked lower than 45 on the list would be an MP - and to 48 if the three new electorate MPs are ranked lower than 45.
I will be able to do anymore modelling until July as I will be away overseas. But as always, take these results with a grain of salt - there is only one poll that counts and that is still 2-4 months away.
Based on the One News poll my modeling shows Otago and Hamilton East will be won by National off Labour and Whanganui is within 1% of changing sides (that is less than 300 votes). It would be a major effort to
Candidates on the Labour Party list down to number 48 would be elected to Parliament - Labour's new MPs will be:
Maryan Street
Steven Ching
Sue Moronrey
Darien Fenton
Charles Chauvel
Louisa Wall
Su'a William
I can't name National's 23 new MPs because the list has not been published. With three new MPs and all existing MPs being returned it would mean any candidate ranked lower than 45 on the list would be an MP - and to 48 if the three new electorate MPs are ranked lower than 45.
I will be able to do anymore modelling until July as I will be away overseas. But as always, take these results with a grain of salt - there is only one poll that counts and that is still 2-4 months away.
posted by Michael at
9:37 PM
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