Frog Blog Poll of Polls

Green Party blog Frog Blog publishes a Poll of Polls on it's website showing Labour leading on 41.2% and National behind on 39.1%. Early in the campaign I thought the methodology was sound - the older the poll gets, the lower the weighting. Also the sample size effects the weighting.

But now the election is moving much quicker than the oldest polls in the weighting reflect. The average includes the two week old NBR poll which had National on 33%. Even then, the NBR poll looked like a rogue poll with most other polls at that time putting National on 37-39%. That poll will stay in the calculation until next Friday at least, possibly until the eve of the election.

So I redid the calculations, discarding the NBR poll. And it shows that National and Labour are neck and neck on 41% each. And National is the party that is rising.