The only certainty is uncertainty
While most commentators have been focusing on the diverse set of parties that Labour has to deal with, there is another dimension to the story - the expiry of the Electoral (Integrity) Act and it's effect on 'Party Hoppers' (aka Waka Jumpers).
Take the last Parliament - it was widely rumoured that one United Future MP was so unhappy with supporting Labour that he refused to vote on certain legislation - for instance, the increased duties on mid-alcohol spirits. The refusal to vote didn't threaten the Government, so it went mostly unreported in the media.
So why didn't this MP quit United Future and vote against the Government? Simple - the Electoral (Integrity) Act. If the MP voted for a motion of no-confidence he'd have been out of Parliament so quick that Helen Clark would have been able to convince the GG that she could get a majority back within a week. A hiccup, but no barrier to completing the term. (Not withstanding Donna tactics.)
But this time around the Electoral (Integrity) Act has expired. Any MP from any party can jump party to party and not have to worry about being expelled from Parliament. So any independently minded Maori Party, NZ First or United MP could vote against Labour without serious sanction. Also, any Labour MP can jump ship to a rival party (or start their own) and not face the prospect of a by-election or expulsion.
Helen Clark is going to have such a difficult job of managing not only her caucus, but the caucuses of the Maori Party, the Greens, NZ First and United Future - almost 70 MPs. Quite a job!
Take the last Parliament - it was widely rumoured that one United Future MP was so unhappy with supporting Labour that he refused to vote on certain legislation - for instance, the increased duties on mid-alcohol spirits. The refusal to vote didn't threaten the Government, so it went mostly unreported in the media.
So why didn't this MP quit United Future and vote against the Government? Simple - the Electoral (Integrity) Act. If the MP voted for a motion of no-confidence he'd have been out of Parliament so quick that Helen Clark would have been able to convince the GG that she could get a majority back within a week. A hiccup, but no barrier to completing the term. (Not withstanding Donna tactics.)
But this time around the Electoral (Integrity) Act has expired. Any MP from any party can jump party to party and not have to worry about being expelled from Parliament. So any independently minded Maori Party, NZ First or United MP could vote against Labour without serious sanction. Also, any Labour MP can jump ship to a rival party (or start their own) and not face the prospect of a by-election or expulsion.
Helen Clark is going to have such a difficult job of managing not only her caucus, but the caucuses of the Maori Party, the Greens, NZ First and United Future - almost 70 MPs. Quite a job!
posted by Michael at
4:27 PM
3 Comments:
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By
Anonymous, at 4:55 PM
I don't think she will try to organise other parties caucuses. I or 2 votes won't be so important anyway and allowing some freedom in this way is basically what she has worked with for the past 3 years anyway.
Who says that National won't have that problem anyway. With people such as Tau Henare on board the National Waka I think the waka might be in for a shakey ride and perhaps one or two might get tipped out at times.
By
steven, at 8:53 PM
Here's to an entertaining few months, because there's no way in hell any arrangement Helen makes will last the next three years.
I just hope ACT and National really capitalise on it and get their own houses in order. National need to build up a reputation as a credible and agressive opposition, while ACT will surely have to rebuild their whole party structure.
By
Andrea, at 9:13 PM
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