Review of my picks from January
Back on 7 January I previewed the election and made some bold calls:
ACT will be back with a similar number of MPs as it currently has. (Maybe one or two less)
I had anticipated that ACT would get about 5% to 5.5% - but I guess the prediction was almost true. ACT are back, but with fewer MPs. It would have helped ACT if independent polling (i.e. not commisioned by ACT) in Epsom showed the result was closer.
National will get more votes than Labour. (But not many more)
This one was close, but Labour got not many more that National. My thinking was that Labour would be able to form a Government as it would be able to stitch together enough support - which is what has happened.
NZ First will be the biggest minor party.
This prediction was hardly rocket science - but Winston Peters made such a bad run in this election he almost became the only party to disappear from Parliament.
United Future will be back with a similar number of MPs.
Didn't get this one right. I expected Peter Dunne's empty nice sounding slogans would have grabbed the attention of the public again, but he didn't get any coverage except for his joint application to the high court to get onto TV3s debate.
Maori Party will create an overhang by getting 1% of the popular vote and winning 5 seats.
They only won 4 seats but I was correct about the overhang.
Progressives will have 4 MPs
I thought Jim Anderton's conservative approach and soft explanation for business welfare ('jobs machine') would resonate more. But it seems the ex-Alliance voters still haven't forgiven Jim. Doesn't look like they ever will. So a big fat wrong for that prediction.
However, compared to other pundits I didn't do so bad - especially as I made these calls almost seven months ago.
ACT will be back with a similar number of MPs as it currently has. (Maybe one or two less)
I had anticipated that ACT would get about 5% to 5.5% - but I guess the prediction was almost true. ACT are back, but with fewer MPs. It would have helped ACT if independent polling (i.e. not commisioned by ACT) in Epsom showed the result was closer.
National will get more votes than Labour. (But not many more)
This one was close, but Labour got not many more that National. My thinking was that Labour would be able to form a Government as it would be able to stitch together enough support - which is what has happened.
NZ First will be the biggest minor party.
This prediction was hardly rocket science - but Winston Peters made such a bad run in this election he almost became the only party to disappear from Parliament.
United Future will be back with a similar number of MPs.
Didn't get this one right. I expected Peter Dunne's empty nice sounding slogans would have grabbed the attention of the public again, but he didn't get any coverage except for his joint application to the high court to get onto TV3s debate.
Maori Party will create an overhang by getting 1% of the popular vote and winning 5 seats.
They only won 4 seats but I was correct about the overhang.
Progressives will have 4 MPs
I thought Jim Anderton's conservative approach and soft explanation for business welfare ('jobs machine') would resonate more. But it seems the ex-Alliance voters still haven't forgiven Jim. Doesn't look like they ever will. So a big fat wrong for that prediction.
However, compared to other pundits I didn't do so bad - especially as I made these calls almost seven months ago.
posted by Michael at
5:11 PM
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