Don Brash - National Party Leader 2003 - 2006?

Jordan Carter and Tony Milne are both speculating that Don Brash is counting down his days as Leader of the National Party. His election loss and failure to connect with women and some urban liberals, is his doom.

However, I think some perspective is needed here. Don Brash has not done badly, when you look at the history of NZ Politics.

Don Brash and the National Party got 39.1% of the total vote at the last election. That's more than in 1981, 1993 and 1996 when National won the election. In terms of elections where National lost, it ranks ahead of 1984, 1999 and 2002 - and only slightly behind the 1938 loss, which was National's first election.

To get better results that 39.1%, you generally have to go back to the 1940s, 50s and early 60s - when there were no serious third parties like Social Credit or Values.

39.14% is also better than Labour has done in it's last three election losses - 1990 (35.1%), 1993 (34.7%) and 1996 (31.1%).

Don Brash is in a club with Adam Hamilton, Sid Holland, Keith Holyoake, Jack Marshall, Jim Bolger, Jenny Shipley and Bill English not to win their first election as leader of the National Party. Only Robert Muldoon won his first election, Jim McLay (like Geoffrey Palmer) didn't get to contest an election.

On the Labour side, the club of first time losers is Harry Holland, Walter Nash, Arnold Nordmeyer, Norman Kirk, Bill Rowling, Mike Moore and Helen Clark.

In fact, the only Leaders to become Prime Ministers on first attempt are Michael Savage, Robert Muldoon and David Lange.

Don Brash must be aware of this - he has declared that he wants to stay on as leader so he can win the next election. A clear message that he knows he has the confidence of his caucus.

So while Don Brash didn't win the election, he didn't disgrace himself. He now leads 48 of the 56 seats in Parliament not aligned with the Government so Don Brash and National have an excellent chance to dominate the media.