Tuesday 31 May 2005

As I said yesterday Edinburgh is a beautiful city. Lots of old buildings everywhere and plenty of green spaces - although I take issue with the claim that Edinburgh has more green space per head than any other capital - Wellington looks as though it would have more. Being so far north means that the Nazis didn't bomb the city, which gives it more old buildings than London. It's a big contrast with Plymouth which has very few older buildings in the city as the Nazis bombed it often.

Today we bussed from the Hotel to the city and had breakfast in the cafe above the BHS store. The breakfast was a mere £3 for eight items. It was so good we skipped lunch, despite all we have done since.

We caught a tour bus around the city, going past the castle, Royal Mile, parliament, Nelson memorial and New town. We stayed on for the second round and got off at the castle and did the compulsary tourist thing and went in. The castle has magnificent views over Edinburgh and a lot of history going back over 1500 years. While we were in the castle we saw a groom and family waiting for the bride to get married in the chapel. Soldiers of the regiments in Edinburgh can use the chapel at the castle to be married and it is very popular.

Afterwards we went to the Camera Obscura. This is the fore runner of the modern camera and works like a periscope, but projects its image onto a round table. Once someone worked out how to capure the light on a chemically treated piece of paper the camera was born. The Camera Obscura also had displays on holograms, 3D pictures and how moving pictures could be made from still pictures.

We continued on down the Royal Mile to St Giles church (Presbyterians don't have cathedrals) which is a magnificent church on the Mile.

We walked further on down the Mile to Canongate Kirk (Church) but which has an important shrine in it. If Muslims go to Mecca the Capitalists must go to the grave of Adam Smith. Chaucey photographed me there, I'll post it if I find a place to upload it.

This is another thing I love about Edinburgh - everywhere you go you pass the birthplace or home or office of some of the most recognisable names in world history.

It was getting late in the day so we caught the tour bus again past the Parliament and back to Princes Street, where I am updating this blog at the information centre. On the way we passed the Scottish Parliament again - perhaps the best example in the world about how Government runs. Initially to be built for £40 million and completed in 2003, it is still unfinished and is £400 million over budget (that's over NZD 1,000,000,000). All that money and it looks like a slab of concrete with some bamboo sticks glued on.

We're off to get dinner now, tomorrow we are off to York.

Monday 30 May 2005

Last night we went to the world famous Manchester Curry Mile in Wilmsloe Road. It was packed with cars, people and Indian Restaurants. Only non-Indian restaurants were the KFCs - Krunchy Fried Chicken and Kansas Fried Chicken.

After a bit of a sleep in we said our farewells to Mischa and drove north to the Scottish border. We stopped for lunch at McDonalds then drove onto Edinburgh. On the way to the hotel I got lost and drove down Princes Street which is bus only. A helpful parking warden directed me to the Hotel but I managed to go to the wrong one. More directions from the hotel got us to the correct one!

All this travelling has tired us out so we only went out for dinner tonight. On the way I got lost again and ended up driving on the Royal Mile past the castle. Edinburgh has a lot of old buildings, more than London and you can't help but admire the view everywhere you go.

Dinner was at La Piazza then back to the hotel for bed.

Sunday 29 May 2005

Manchester has left a lasting impression on me - during the night some so and so has kicked the wing mirror on the rental car and broken it. Being a rental car it has a high excess (thankfully I purchased the excess reduction) but I'm looking at about $200-$300 out of pocket. The policeman at the station was very sympathetic and we had a good chat about how he wants to go to NZ to live.

Mischa took us this morning to the Manchester Science and Industry Museum where they have a temporary display of animatronic dinosaurs. They roar and move about delighting the children. We also went to the flight and space centre where we saw Spitfires, Lancasters and the front section of a Dehavilland Trident Passenger Jet. The displays on space seemed very out of date as they referred to activites in 1991 as being future events. Otherwise it was very interesting.

For lunch we bussed out to the Trafford Centre, a huge shopping centre near Old Trafford Football ground where Manchester United play their home games. The centre is massive, with over 100 shops on two levels. The food court has about 30 different food suppliers and is done in a mock cruise liner style on the lower level and a mock New Orleans style on the upper level. While we were having lunch there was the National Arm Wrestling Federations Arm Wars VIII on stage with arm wrestling competitiors from all around Europe. Weird!

After lunch Mischa and I went looking at boy stuff while Chaucey looked in clothing stores. One store we went into sold some reallry weird food - Scorpian Vodka (with a real scorpian), Tequila Lollipops (complete with worm) and Chocolate covered Wasps. I wasn't brave enough to try any. The electronics stores had lots of cool stuff and the music stores had a much wider range of DVDs than is available in NZ.

On the subject of Music the number 1 song in Britain at the moment is the 'Crazy Frog vs Axel F' - it started as a ringtone for cellphones and is now realeased as a single. It's incredibly annoying and one of those things that you either really love or really hate. Check it out and decide for yourself.

Saturday 28 May 2005

Britain has a wonderful Motorway system. We drove from Ivybridge to Exeter to Birmingham, 200 miles, in three and a half hours. If we had been going the other way it would probably have taken seven hours as every man and his dog (and caravan) was heading to the South Coast for the long weekend holiday.

We turned off at Birmingham and went to Bourneville, home of Cadbury's. We did the tour and learnt the history of Cadbury's and how they built a factory in the country and a village for the employees as the Victorian Pollution disagreed with them. Birmingham has now grown so much that they are no longer in the country. My colleagues at BNZ will be pleased to know that I got some chocolates for them (however they are not Chocolate Macadamia Nuts).

I'm also having trouble with British road signs. At one point I thought the sign was to turn right to get to Bournville but I ended up in the car park for Sainsbury. Then after the stopover in Bournville I headed back to the M5 and misread the signs and went south instead of north. If it's any consolation I know I am not the first person to get lost in a foreign country.

We did make it to Manchester without serious incident and the semi-helpful staff at the information centre sent me the wrong way to find Mischa's flat but Chaucey saved the day and we safely arrived. For dinner we all went to an Asian Restaurant and had a variety of Japanese, Chinese and South-east asian dishes.

We headed back in the twilight (9.30pm) stopping to see the area the IRA bombed in the 90s which sticks out as it is the only modern building in the city centre before heading back to the flat for a good nights sleep.

Friday 26 May 2005

Weather wise today was the complete opposite of yesterday. It was warm, sunny and very pleasant - 25 degrees. In London it reached 32 degrees. According to the news tonight it is the warmest day in Britain since 11 August 2003 and the warmest day in May for 50 years.

We spent the day in Dartmoor collecting more Letterboxes near Princetown. We had good luck today, we found five of the six we looked for and stopped for lunch at the Dartmoor Inn in Merrivale, where we got another. For the week we have 38 Letterboxes found.

After lunch it was too sunny and warm to keep looking as we were starting to get a bit red. We headed back to the Ivybridge and I'm updating this from the Library which has free Internet Access. The library also has a kiwi soft toy on the counter so I feel a little bit at home. Dinner tonight was English Fish and Chips, which I found not to my taste - rather than cooking the fish for you it's precooked so not as tasty.

Tomorrow we are off to Manchester where we will be staying with Chaucey's brother, Mischa.

Thursday 26 May 2005

Today the fog rolled in and stayed. We went to the 'English Riveria' - Torquay. We went to a local attraction called 'Bygones' which shows British life from the past. After Bygones we drove down to the beacfhront. I was dissappointed by the beaches - there was not much sandy areas and being a grey day it didn't look very inviting.

The fog n ever lifted so we went to the movies. The Odeon in Plymouth was reasonably priced (only £3.50) and we saw 'Star Wars - Revenge of the Sith'. I will say that it wasn't as bad as the first two prequels, but not much better.

Once the movie was over we headed home as the fog still hadn't lifted by 4pm.

Wednesday 25 May 2005

This morning was very foggy as we headed up into the Moors again for more Letterboxes. We headed up near Yar Tor but couldn't see it in the heavy fog, but we found two letterboxes that had been placed near the road. The fog lifted and we climbed Yar Tor (405 metres) and had great views over southern Dartmoor.

All that excercise gave us an appetite so we had a yummy lunch at the Railway Inn in Princeton in front of a roaring fire. Princeton is the highest town in England and has a prison built by French prisoners of war in the eighteenth century.

The last of the fog lifted after lunch so we headed back out to look for more letterboxes. We found none but saw an irrigation channel with aquaducts and an optical illusion - the water appeared to run uphill!

BBC is getting a hard time at the moment over it's weather presentation. They are using the TVNZ graphics, adapted to British conditions. Britain appears brown and Scotland is hard to see because of the lean the graphic is given. It is so topical that the House of Lords devoted yesterday to debating going back to the previous graphics!

Tuesday 24 May 2005

Today the forecast is not so good so we drove to Plymouth - the main town has been completely rebuilt after WWII after the Nazis bombed it flat in 1941. We had a look around and had some photos developed.

After lunch we went to Okehampton in the north of Dartmoor. We visited the musuem and walked through the village. Afterwards we went up to Okehampton Castle, which looks ready to collapse in the next big wind.

We were driving home afterwards when we got caught in a traffic jam in the outskirts of Plymouth, caused by a minor car accident. We had just picked up some groceries so I was worried about the frozens so we got home in time.

One thing I noticed is every speed camera site is signposted as you approach the camera along with the speed limit that applies.

At night we were watching a programme called "Love me, love my kids" on BBC2. It's a dating show for single parents where the kids set up the parent with a prospective partner. One of the prospective dates on the show was a dancer who was shown practicing, with Mandy from Ceroc Wellington (It must have been shot some time ago). Strange to come halfway round the world and to spot someone you know on TV.

Monday 22 May 2005

Off early this morning to Soussons Forest to look for letterboxes. On the way we travelled along even narrower lanes having to dodge on-coming cars and lorries. On arrival we went into the forrest and found two out of three letterboxes we searched for. On the way out of the forest we saw an ancient stone circle.

We went off to Morehampton for lunch then headed out on a charity letterbox walk. In return for a donation of two pounds we get directions to 12 letterboxes. On our walk we found eight of the letterboxes, two we couldn't find, one had been destroyed by an animal or weather, the last was in a shop that was closed for renovations. The walk was over six miles long so we drove home afterwards.

Tonight Channel 4 had a current affairs show about an undercover reporter who worked for the Labour Party in Britain before the election. She drafted template letters for Labour activists to write to local papers supporting Labour policies and organised rent-a-crowds for Publicity stunts. It seemed like sour grapes from the media as Blairs team managed media events so well that experienced (hardened) Political reporters were shut out from questioning Blair, only reporters from regional and local papers were able to do so. If British Labour managed the campaign well enough to prevent negative publicity then I say well done to his team (and hopefully they won't be coming to NZ for the election later this year.)

Saturday 22 May 2005

Today we went into the Moors. After breakfast and a load of washing we drove around the western side of Dartmoor National Park then through the moor to Princeton. Along the way we stopped and climbed an unnamed Tor.

Once in Princeton we gathered ourselves and headed west. We went for a wander in the wilderness and saw sheep and the famous Dartmoor ponoes. While we were out we climbed Vixen Tor - which is mentioned in Arthur Conan Doyle's "Hound of the Baskervilles" - and looked for Letterboxes. We found only one before the rain set in so we headed back to Princeton for lunch. We had lunch in once cafe, then a drink in a Pub, and finally dessert in another cafe to collect different letterbox stamps.

After lunch it was hailing so headed home. The roads are very narrow and there is not much room for vehicles to pass. In places it is also very steep - in one place the gradient was 1 in 4.

We arrived back at the cottage and watched TV - the locals are a little upset about the Eurovision song contest as Britain finished 3rd last. Personally, I thought they were all equally bad and didn't deserve to be on TV.

Saturday 21 May 2005

Today we left London for Dartmoor. We collected our rental car, a Vauxhall Corsa (sold in NZ as the Holden Barina) and drove on the M4, crawled along the M25, then drove out to the Basingstoke round-a-bout (which is somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford).

After stopping for fuel and some groceries we had lunch at McDonalds. We choose a burger called a McTasty, which turned out to be a Mc-not-to-our-taste-y, but we did enjoy the oppurtunity to have an item not available in New Zealand.

After getting back on the highway we travelled along some secondary roads towards Salisbury. Along the way I saw signs warning of deer crossing. At first I thought the cahnces of wild deer running across framland, jumping the roadside fence and crossing the road were remote, but a doe ran out in front of us just missing a car coming the other way.

After a few hours we came to Salisbury - it has a magnificent medievil Cathedral that dominates the town. We missed the northward highway so had to come back for a second viewing while going to Stonehenge.

Chaucey thought Stonehenge was smaller than she expected. I had no preconception about size but had thought that it was circular - the inner ring is actually horseshoe shaped. Stonehenge is 4500 years old so rivals the Egyptian pyramids in age and predates Druids by 1000 years, so it's actual purpose is lost.

Finally, we drive onto Dartmoor. The road from Stonehenge to Exeter was narrow and slow, but once we got to the M5 it was dual carraige-way the whole distance so we made up time. The speed limit is 70mph (115km) but if you travel at 70 you only catch up on little old ladies - most people do 90mph and the odd boy racer flys by at 120mph.

After arriving at our cottage we headed down a narrow country lane to the Horse and Groom for dinner. Dessert was Pavlova, a very nice raspberry pav. Afterwards we went back to the cottage and watched the Eurovision Song contest until I fell asleep on the couch.

20 May 2005 - London (last day)

Today we went to Kingston-upon-Thames. While on our way out to Bushy Park and Hampton Court Palace we had a look at the shops. One travel agent had posters advertising holidays in New Zealand, including travel to the "Capital of New Zealand - Queenstown". Think they left the word 'adventure' off the start of the sentence.

We had a walk through Bushy Park which is a Royal Park in which deer were kept to allow the royal family to go hunting. The hunting has ended but the deer are still in the Park, along with Swans, geese and lots of ducks. One thing I learned today is that Swans have trouble digesting white bread so if you ever feed swans take wholemeal bread. We had fun looking at the Deer and walking through the English forest.

After lunch at the Kings Gate Pub, we went to Hampton Court Palace, which was the country retreat of King Henry VIII. We had a look through the palace on a guided tour - the guide was dressed in period costume - and saw all sorts of signs of the palaces inhabitents, including the motif of Catherine of Aragon that was overlooked when every trace of her was removed from the palace. We also went to the Haunted Corridor, where the ghost of Catherine Howard can sometimes be heard pleading for her life outside Henry's door. We had a walk through the gardens and found the centre of the maze.

After all this walking, my feet were very tired so we headed back to Annette's place. We've been watching TV and I found a channel called 'Men and Machines' which was showing 'Motorway Patrol' from New Zealand showing incidents on Auckland's motorways. Then during the adverts they showed a promo for the Travel Channel for the Filth Files, another New Zealand TV programme - why show a TV show about dirt in Auckland to potential travellers? These Brits are crazy!

Tonight we are planning on taking Annette to dinner to thank her for putting us up this week. Tomorrow we head off to Ivybridge in Dartmoor.

We have not finished with London yet as we will be back for 5 days next month. So far I have formed the impression that all British suburbs look like Weatherfield (Coronation Street) and everyone speaks very politely - all announcements on the tube are filled with please and thank you.

I'm not sure if there are any nearby Internet Cafes to Ivybridge so posting may be less than daily for the next week or so.

19 May 2005 - London

Today we went to the Tower of London. We got off at the London Bridge tube station and walked over the Tower Bridge. Once inside we joined a guided tour by a Beefeater, who told us lots of interesting things about the famous prisoners and some of the executions. Today (19th May) is the 469th anniversary of the execution of Anne Boleyn (Second wife of Henry VIII) so some flowers were left on the spot where she was beheaded. We had a look at the crown jewels and a wander around the grounds.

Afterwards, we had lunch at the Deep Pan Pizza Restaurant then headed over to Harrods. I was amazed at the number of odd departments for a department store to have. It has it's own bank, travel agency and an amazing selection of fresh fruit and vegetable. It wasn't long before I got completely lost so after an hour of wandering around we left and caught the tube to Bond Street.

We walked along Bond Street looking at the shops until we decided our poor feet needed a break so we jumped on a double decker bus and went for a ride to Latimer Road tube station, past Paddington Station and St Thomas's Hospital, where Fleming discovered Penicillin. (One of the great things about London is everywhere you go you keep running into a piece of history.)

After that we had run out of energy so we went back to Annette's, where she made this wonderful miso rice and savoy cabbage dinner. Well done Annette.

Tomorrow we are off to Hampton Court Palace, home of Henry VIII. Saturday we pick up the rental car and head to Dartmoor.

18 May 2005 - London

Another day spent poking around London.

Today Chaucey and I went to Greenwich, where the Prime Meridan passes through. On the way there we used the Docklands Light Rail (DLR) where for the first time we had a ticket inspection. It amazes me that the train we catch to Waterloo has no checks that you have purchased a ticket at either end or on the train.

The Royal Observatory at Greenwich is surrounded by a beautiful park filled with children, tourists and squirrels. The squirrels are tame and take food from tourists. The kids run wild, everywhere. While in the Observatory there were facsinating displays on the invention of timekeeping equipment to enable ships at sea to know their longitude. There was also a telescope set up for viewing - when you looked you saw Pluto.

Afterwards, we had another Pub Lunch in Greenwich and headed over to the Victoria and Albert Museum. Allegedly, it has a whole house designed by Frank Lloyd Wright in it. We couldn't find it, and the museum was themed on design throughout the ages. It was really boring - it's only of interesting to people interested in design.

Afterwards we went over to Kensington Gardens to see the Peter Pan Statue. On the way we stopped to feed the squirrels in the park - although they were not as friendly as the Greenwich squirrels - and check out the swans, ducks and hens in the lake.

Finally, we packed onto a rush hour tube to Fulham to have dinner with Annette and Susan, who are friends from New Zealand who live in London. (We are staying with Annette.) While waiting for the train an Australian came up to me and asked about the trains so I must look like a local - I knew the answer to the question so that was good.

We had planned on going to Harrods but spent too much time at Greenwich, so we will do that another time.

I am quite tired now - I don't think my body clock has caught up on the change of timezone, so I'm heading to bed.

Tomorrow we are planning on going to the Tower of London.

Tuesday 17 May 2005 - London

Our flight from Hong Kong to London was not enjoyable. As soon as the plane got into the air I got a sleeping mask from the cabin crew. Once I was asleep the crew started serving supper (at 1am) and woke us up. Went back to sleep, only to be woken by turbulence every 30 mins or so. After about 6 hours of the flight with about half of it asleep and and the rest trying to get to sleep I gave up and watched movies until we got to London.

On arrival we caught the Tube to Chaucey's friend Annette's house in New Malden. We had to change lines at the Earl's Court station and caught the wrong train. Once we backtracked we were fine.

After a shower we headed out to see the opening of Parliament at Westminster. On the way we followed the signs at the Tube staiton but were turned back by an extremely polite London bobby who directed us to the public areas. We stood opposite Whitehall and watched the Queen and Prince Phillip go by. There were hundreds of horseback palace guards all looking very smart.

Afterwards, we went looking for a pub to have lunch in. While on the way we crossed Westminster bridge and an icy wind hit us Oh well, it's only 12 days until summer. We found a pub called the Three Stags and had a pint each with our Bangers and Mash and Cheeseburger. I followed it up with a Jam Pudding. Very yummy all round.

Next we caught the tube to Piccadilly Circus, which was smaller than I expected. We checked out the Virgin Music store which had listening posts with a very cool feature. If you scan the barcode of any CD it will play you a sample of all the tracks.

We walked down past the Information centre to what was an attractive avenue and continued down to the end, to discover we had found Buckingham Palace. It wasn't as marbly coloured as I thought, nor as big. However, the guards were impressive - they were in perfect sync when they marched around.

Afterwards, we went to the London Eye for a view of the city. It was okay but a little underwhelming. We didn't really see much more than if you spent 30 mins walking around up and down the Thames.

It was getting close to Dinner time, so we went back to Annette's on the train. I was so tired that I fell asleep on the couch and slept through the whole night. Apparently I only missed the girls having a good gossip.

Today (Wednesday) we are going to Greenwich Observatory, then Harrods and the Victoria and Albert Musuem.

Monday 16 May 2005 - Wellington/Auckland/Hong Kong

Michael's World goes global today - this post is written at Hong Kong International Airport. Tomorrows post will be from London.


Woke up at 4.30am and couldn't get back to sleep, was so excited. Chaucey got a better nights sleep than recently. At 5.30am I was still awake so I read a book until 6.15am then had a shower. Rose collected us at 7.15am and we were at the airport at 8.20am. Big thanks to Rose.

About 20 mins later Dad and Jeanne arrived for their flight to Dunedin so we talked until we had to go to the gate for departure to Auckland. The flight was uneventful - except for the delicious blueberry and cream cheese pikelet. (Yum!)

In Auckland I gave the BNZ staff a hard time as we changed Australian and New Zealand dollars given to us at the weekend to Pounds. Just proves that staff make the worst customers. Once we were through customs we had no problems and boarded our flight to Hong Kong.

The flight hit some rough winds over the Tasman just after we finished lunch so we had airline food trays on our laps for an hour before being cleared. The route went right over Cairns in Northern Queensland and then the Gulf of Carpentaria. We flew over Indonesia and the Phillipines before getting a wonderful view of Hong Kong at night when we arrived.

On arrival in Hong Kong the tempature was 30 degrees - that was at 9pm. I got confused about our flight arrangements and almost ended up going to the wrong airline desk. However, I noticed in time and we got ourselves sorted.

Hong Kong airport is impressive. It's so big it has a rail service to take passengers from check-in to the gates at the far end. We used the train to go to a place where you can have a shower - cost is HKD65 each, but worth it. We had a snack at the Burger King - we shared some fries and a drink so got the large portions. Turned out to be US style 'Super-size me' size. Strangely, in Hong Kong when you order a diet coke you get a 'Diet Coke with Lemon' flavour. (It happened on the plane as well.)

We are now waiting to board the flight to London. The plan is to sleep through the flight and get into sync with Europe time as we are due to arrive at Heathrow around 6am.

Will post again tomorrow.

Wedding Photos

Follow this link to our wedding photos.

One News Poll - 15 May 2005

And it's Deja Vu all over again.

Based on the One News poll my modeling shows Otago and Hamilton East will be won by National off Labour and Whanganui is within 1% of changing sides (that is less than 300 votes). It would be a major effort to

Candidates on the Labour Party list down to number 48 would be elected to Parliament - Labour's new MPs will be:

Maryan Street
Steven Ching
Sue Moronrey
Darien Fenton
Charles Chauvel
Louisa Wall
Su'a William

I can't name National's 23 new MPs because the list has not been published. With three new MPs and all existing MPs being returned it would mean any candidate ranked lower than 45 on the list would be an MP - and to 48 if the three new electorate MPs are ranked lower than 45.

I will be able to do anymore modelling until July as I will be away overseas. But as always, take these results with a grain of salt - there is only one poll that counts and that is still 2-4 months away.

Introducing Mr and Mrs Ellis

Happy to report that Chaucey and I are married!

The wedding went without a hitch, will post some photos when I get some - I was too busy getting married to take any. However, that may have to wait until July.

It was good to see so many friends and family members last night. I hope that those who came enjoyed themselves. The comments I got were that the service was not intimidating and that they enjoyed it. Lots of people were enthusiastic about the Minister (thanks Graham) and the music (thanks Elenoar). Our entrance piece may have seemed familiar to those attending - although it was originally a 19th century organ piece it was arranged into the pop song "If I Had Words" from the movie Babe. The lyrics are suitably soppy. Graham's explanation of the Song of Solomon was also very interesting.

Being chauffuered in a Jaguar after the wedding was fun - thanks to the nice man at the Basin Reserve lights who waved to us. And the meal at Lone Star was a good chance to catch up with relatives and friends (and to meet some of my new family).

Now, just the family and friends party tonight and we can get ready for our holiday!

Doonegate

The blogsphere and the media are going nuts over Doonegate. This is a major scandal in the world of politics.

However, it's not a scandal of the public eye. In the view of the average punter it's this sort of carry-on that cheapens politics. The average punter thinks, "Okay - she lied. But she is a politician, and they all lie so what's the difference."

Watergate didn't capture the public imagination until the successful impeachment (in Congress) of Nixon. Paintergate and the Yelich affair never caught on the public mind as there was no legal sanction that obviously effected the Prime Ministers position. (She still stayed on as PM.) As Doonegate has the same nil effect on the PM, it will die out of public conscienceness next week.

Labours List

Based on the previous post of the NBR Poll, Labour's new MPs are:

Wayne Harpur - Winning Invercargill
Shane Jones - List
Maryan Street - List

Sitting MPs to miss out on re-election are Lynne Pillay and John Tamihere.

Also from the poll there is one new Green MP - Catherine Delahunty.

I'm still unable to predict any other parties new MPs as the Party Lists have not yet been publicised.

10 May 05 UPDATE: I think my brain has turned to mush. As Span has rightly pointed out, Lynne Pillay will win Waitakere. I hadn't considered that a current list MP was standing in that seat. My bad. That makes Maryan Street miss out on becoming an MP.

I have also realised that I can predict new electorate MPs for other parties:

For National:

Otago: Jacqui Dean
Hamilton East: David Bennett
Kaikoura: Colin King

For Maori Party:

Tamaki Makarua: Pita Sharples
Waiariki: Te Ururoa Flavell
Te Tai Tonga: Monte Ohia
Te Tai Tokerau: Hone Harawira

It is unlikely that the Maori Party will have any list MPs unless it lifts it's polling to over 4%.

NBR Poll - how it looks for electorates

Following on from my post on 17 April, here is how the election results would look by electorate based on the NBR Poll.

Election Outcome



124 MPs are elected (Jim Anderton and 3 Maori Party MPs create the overhang)

Labour retains:

Aoraki, Auckland Central, Banks Peninsula, Chch Central, Chch East, Dunedin North, Dunedin South, East Coast, Hamilton West, Hutt South, Invercargill, Mana, Mangere, Manukau East, Manurewa, Maungakiekie, Mt Albert, Mt Roskill, Napier, New Lynn, New Plymouth, Northcote, Otaki, Palmerston North, Rimutaka, Rongotai, Rotorua, Taupo, Te Atutu, Tukituki, Waimakariri, Wairarapa, Waitakere, Wellington Central, West Coast-Tasman.

National will win off Labour:

Hamilton East, Otago

National to retain:

Bay of Plenty, Clevedon, Clutha-Southland, Coromandel, East Coast Bays, Epsom, Helensville, Ilam, Kaikoura, Nelson, North Shore, Northland, Pakuranga, Piako, Port Waikato, Rakaia, Rangitikei, Rodney, Tamaki, Taranaki-King Country, Whangarei

Labour will win off National:

None

Too close to call

Whanganui (Labour leads by less than 1%)

Incumbent Third Parties to win:

Wigram (Jim Anderton, Progressive)
Ohariu-Belmont (Peter Dunne, United Future)
Tauranga (Winston Peters, NZ First)
Te Tai Hauauru (Tariana Turia, Maori Party)

A Government that keeps you informed of the important things ...

Yes, that's what we have. And they want you to know about it.

Take for example the Working for Families package - 50,000 families are entitled to assistance they previously didn't get. Another 200,000 are getting increases to existing assistance.

So to tell 200,000 families about their increases, they don't write to them - they have TV and Radio advertisements. To make sure 50,000 families know about the new entitlements, they have lots of TV and radio ads. After all, together we're talking about 400,000 adults that are effected by this! It's well know that the total cost of all this advertising is $17,000,000. Works out at $42.50 per person.

Now, take for instance the changes to the Road Code. 2,910,717 licensed drivers are effected by changes to rules for roundabouts, cycle lanes and pedestrians. Thats almost five times the number of people that Working for Families covers. So how much does the Government spend on telling them of these changes?

$10,000,000 - No, not that much.

$2,000,000 - Not even close!

$1,000,000 - Getting closer.

$500,000 - nope, even less

$110,000 - Yes. Land Transport spent $110,000 on a print only (i.e Newspapers and flyers) to tell almost three million people about how the road rules had changed. That's $0.04 per licensed driver.

How do I know this? I asked the LTSA myself, and they gave me the figures. (I can email them to you if you want.)

So am I being cynical or is the $17,000,000 worth of advertising just pro-Labour propaganda?