The New MPs

For Labour:

Wayne Harpur, Shane Jones, Maryan Street, Steven Ching, Sue Moroney and Darien Fenton.

For National:

Alan Peachey, David Bennett, Chester Burrows, Tim Groser, Dr Jonathan Coleman, Mark Blumsky, Eric Roy, Colin King, Chris Finlayson, Nicky Wagner, Tau Henare, Jo Goodhew, Chris Auchinvole, Kate Wilkinson, Nathan Guy, Dr Jackie Blue, Anne Tolley, Craig Foss, Katrina Shanks, Paula Bennett, Fepulea’i Ulua’ipou-O-Malo Aiono.

NBR Poll - Electorate Predictions

After the last few polls with National in the lead, we've reverted back to the same scenario with Labour holding most of it's seats, only losing Otago and Hamilton West.

Labour will retain Wanganui by a mere 60 vote majority based on this poll.

Interestingly, when I ran the Herald poll through the same spreadsheet it returned the same result, only a slight difference in the number of votes in each electorate.



I'm making the assumption that the Maori Party will win 5 of the 7 Maori Seats and that Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne will win their seats.

Hon Richard Prebble CBE Retires

Now it's not much of a secret that I am a fan of Prebs - It's true I worked for him and have always said it is the best job I ever had. After his speech he found me having a drink in the ACT Caucus room and said that the line from his speech - "I am very grateful to my staff" - was especially for me. He then went to every other staffer and ex-staffer and said the same thing.

I had known most of the stories that were in his speech today (and many that were not - wait for the book) and my favourite passage is this:

'I would occasionally receive calls from people who lived in Robert Muldoon’s Tamaki electorate. For 18 years we shared a boundary. When he got one of my constituents, he would say, “You are Richard Prebble’s constituent, I know he is a wild young man but he is a good electorate MP. Here is his home number, he wont mind you ringing. He is a bit of a night owl, ring him after 10pm and say I told you too.”

When his constituents rang me I would say, “Parliamentary protocol means you must approach your local MP. Muldoon is good to his constituents. Here is his confidential home number. He gets up very early; best ring him before 6am and say I told you to ring.” I would then add no matter how impossible the problem. “Sir Robert is Prime Minister, he can easily fix your problem.”

We did that to each other for 18 years.

Sir Robert even fixed their problems. Like the constituent who had been ringing us all to say that the SIS were beaming gamma rays at his head. Muldoon just said. "I am the Minister in charge of the SIS. Why didn’t you ring me earlier? I will have it stopped today."'

Petone Environment Centre Candidates Meeting

Last night the Petone Environment Centre held a meet the (Hutt South) candidates meeting at the Petone Senior Citizens Hall - here's some highlights:


- Hutt South MP Trevor Mallard was a no-show, as was the Maori Party Candidate. No NZ First Representitive attended.
- Labour MP Mahara Okeroa told the audience not to worry about the $7.5 Billion surplus - he was "going to take care of that". (What, personally?) He also said that Interest-Free Student Loans were not an electoral bribe but "clever strategy".
- Alliance Candidate Kane O'Connell had the best sense of humour, even admitting the chances of getting to Parliament were nil.
- Mahara Okeroa couldn't remember Trevor Mallard's list ranking and got angry when he was challanged about it.
- Labour's local volunteers kept attacking National Candidate Rosemarie Thomas, but left normally a good sign that they're worried about losing the seat.
- United Future MP Murray Smith spoke in actual sentences, not slogans like every other UF MP I've ever heard.
- Destiny Candidate David Knight gave a good speech promising everything to everybody.
- Mahara Okeroa got into an arguement with a member of the public when asked if he thought of the job Trevor Mallard was doing as Race Relations Minister and what the Maori Caucus thought about it. For a second I thought he was going to come over and thump the poor guy, but he calmed down and said that there was a report from Mallard that the Maori Caucus was considering.

Election Bribes - Have some now or more later?

It seems we're heading towards a dutch auction - not an election. After six years in power, Labour announced that it will abolish interest on Student Loans for NZ residents. (Being an electoral cynic, I wonder how much of a ploy this is to just trump the National Party policy of Tax Rebates on student loans.)

National's tax cuts will deliver more to students in the long run - rather than Labours savings for ten years, National is offering savings for a lifetime. But that's not the point.

More worrying is the prospect of both parties simply try to out-trump each other. We could end up with a short-term auction that ultimately have a negative effect on New Zealand if all is implemented.

So Don and Helen - please, for all our sakes outline how NZ will be better off overall from your policies rather than starting a big lollie scramble, trying to outdo each other.

Trevor Mallard's Brain Explosion (or is it?)

Now, I've been thinking about this one. The day after a damning report on the Beureaucracies managing Tertiary Education in this country comes out the Minister responsible comes out with the most outrageous comments about the National Party.

Now I've heard some rather strange claims - one of them from Phillipa Bunkle in 1999 that Richard Prebble was planning to sell the Town Belt as all he cared about was money. (Ironic, isn't it.)

But he's effectively changed the topic of the media slamming of him from his incompetent management of Teritary Education to slamming him for his less than creditable attack on National - the lesser of two evils? Perhaps he has been a little more clever than most people give him credit for.

Incidentally, Helen Clark is reportedly furious with Mallard - and it turns out the Billionaire Mallard was referring to is also a donor to the Labour Party. I see even Mike Williams The question I'm left wondering is - Has she lost control of her caucus and the Party President? Apparently Cullen and Clark are very angry with each other over the Budget, now Mallard is getting into the gutter. Clark cannot be happy with Mike Williams as she would be blaming him for building up expectations of tax cuts in the Budget.

Photo from Edinburgh

If Muslims go to Mecca, then Capitalists go to Edinburgh. Why? To pay homage to Adam Smith at his gravesite.



If you're ever in Edinburgh and want to visit it is at Canongate Kirk on the Royal Mile, about halfway between the Castle and Holyrood.

Dr Cullen, Helen Clark, Phil Goff vs Don Brash

So why does Dr Cullen want to talk about donations to the National Party? (He accused National of having large donors, some of them from overseas.) But just three months ago it was revealed that an Australian Billionaire was donating $100,000 per month to the Labour Party. And when we get the election returns we will see the large donations from the Unions.

So was does Helen Clark want to talk about Iraq? Yes, Don Brash said he would have gone based on the information he knew. But it is purely hypothetical for Helen Clark to say he would definately have sent troops to Iraq as Don Brash would recieve different information if he was Prime Minister. Also, such a decision would need to be approved by Cabinet, it would not have been sole Don Brash's decision.

So why does Phil Goff want to talk about Zimbabwae? Yes, the Black Caps shouldn't go. Yes, Zimbabwae is run by a Dictator who doesn't think twice about using violence against his opponents. But why is it such a big issue that it has to dominate the news when it is obvious that he is doing nothing, and going to do nothing.

Why - because they would talk about anything but Tax cuts, Education failings and Health waiting lists. So now they are so desparate to avoid these issues that they are inventing issues that have no relevance to divert attention.

The only problem is that these issues won't catch the public imagination for more than one or two days - and in the case of the donations will haunt Labour throughout the campaign (especially as it accepted donations from an overseas billionaire.)

More spending vs Better spending

Today's Dom Post includes an article about National's plans to cut taxes and the possible effect on Health and Education spending. Dr Cullen complains that tax cuts will cause spending in Health and Education to be cut as well.

It could be that is not such a bad thing - so many bureaucrats have been added to Education and Health that both systems are now struggling to cope with the demands bureaucracies demand on them.

For instance, under Labout spending in Health has gone up by an additional 50% since 1999. Since then, Hospital waiting lists have gone up, the number of operations has remained pretty much static, and scandals about underfunding in various areas of Health (think Psycriatric Care) have surfaced from time to time.

The question for Don Brash is to make a pledge that more operations will be done and more teachers (who are paid more) will be in the classrooms then follow through on that by showing how the bureaucracy can be cut without detrimenting output.

Thankfully that's not hard.

How to Waste a Billion Dollars

Trevor Mallard has finally put a stop to the funding haemoragging to low quality sub-degree courses in Tertiary Education providers.

Labour made this mess happen - of course - by changing the rules so any course could be funded as long as the provider met quality standards. There was no check on the course, students would (in theory) only sign up if there was an educational benefit.

It didn't take long for shrewd providers to realise that they could sign up people if there was other incentives - like free dive gear, free computers, or trips to Australia included in the course. Other operators put on courses at no charge, so students didn't have to apply a cost/benefit logic.

Labour should have realised things were going wrong when accusations of Diving Courses providing no real employment prospects surfaced in 2001. Then there was the huge cost of the Cool-IT course offered by Christchurch Polytech in 2003. Then sing-a-long to radio courss were being offered by Terawhiti Polytech in 2004, but nothing was done.

Only when he spent weeks being grill in Parliament by Opposition MPs about courses being offered like: "Twilight Golf", "Effective Colour of the Human Soul", and "Homeopathy for Pets" did Labour start looking at the problem.

Now Labour has accused National of not being able to afford tax cuts the issue of Low Quality Government spending is looming as a big election issue. National can easily say "Labour spent $1 Billion on crap courses - would you rather that continue or would you rather have the money back?"

So Trevor Mallard has finally acted and shut down this rort after 5 years, probably three years after he should have.

New MPs for the main parties

For Labour:

Shane Jones (list), Denise MacKenzie (Wairarapa).
Note: All the Labour MPs who lose get back on the list - only John Tamihere is vulnerable as he has no list place.

For National:

Tim Groser (list), Chris Findlayson (list), Nicky Wagner (List), Tau Henare (list), Allan Peachey (Tamaki), Jo Goodhew (List), David Bennett (Hamilton East), Chester Burrows (Wanganui),  Chris Auchinvole (List), Dr Jonathan Coleman (Northcote), Mark Blumsky (Wellington Central), Eric Roy (Invercargill), Kate Wilkinson (List), Nathan Guy (List), Jacqui Dean (Otago), Dr Jackie Blue (list), Colin King (Kaikoura), Anne Tolley (list), Craig Foss (list), Paula Bennett (Waitakere),  Katrina Shanks (list), Fepulea’i Ulua’ipou-O-Malo Aiono (list),  Ravi Musuku (list), Bob Clarkson (list), John Hayes (list), Moira Irving (List), Chris Tremain (Napier).

One News Poll - How it looks for electorates

Done the modelling and a dramatic change from my post of two months ago. National are set to 30 seats, eight more than last election. The one that I'm most surprised about is Napier! Yes, based on the swing in the One News/Colmar Brunton Poll Napier will fall to National.



124 MPs are elected (Jim Anderton and 3 Maori Party MPs create the overhang)

Labour retains:

Aoraki, Auckland Central, Chch Central, Chch East, Dunedin North, Dunedin South, East Coast, Hamilton West, Hutt South, Mana, Mangere, Manukau East, Manurewa, Maungakiekie, Mt Albert, Mt Roskill, New Lynn, New Plymouth, Otaki, Palmerston North, Rimutaka, Rongotai, Rotorua, Taupo, Te Atutu, Tukituki, Waimakariri, Wairarapa, Waitakere, West Coast-Tasman.

National will win off Labour:

Banks Peninsula, Invercargill, Hamilton East, Napier, Northcote, Otago, Wellington Central, Whanganui.

National to retain:

Bay of Plenty, Clevedon, Clutha-Southland, Coromandel, East Coast Bays, Epsom, Helensville, Ilam, Kaikoura, Nelson, North Shore, Northland, Pakuranga, Piako, Port Waikato, Rakaia, Rangitikei, Rodney, Tamaki, Taranaki-King Country, Whangarei.

Labour will win off National:

None.

Too close to call.

No seats are within 500 votes.


Incumbent Third Parties to win:

Wigram (Jim Anderton, Progressive)
Ohariu-Belmont (Peter Dunne, United Future)
Tauranga (Winston Peters, NZ First)
Te Tai Hauauru (Tariana Turia, Maori Party)

This mornings letter in Dom Post

I swear I wrote this one myself

London Bombings

Having recently stayed in London just a few hundred metres from Edgeware Rd, Kings Cross and Russell Square I was more than a little shocked that Terrorists decided to attack Londoners.

It did make me think - what if I had been there? At that time in the morning I would have been out heading towards a tourist attraction and could easily have been on the Tube. Why would any terrorist want to kill me - what would I have done to them?

These people prey on ordinary people to try to change their opinions. "They attacked us becuase of Tony Blair!". The people then punish the strong willed Leaders who stand up to terrorism and vote in appeasers. It makes the job of the Terrorists much easier, just as Neville Chamberlain didn't stop Hitler from marching through Europe. (The Czechs a still a little bitter about that, too.)

Stand strong London and Tony Blair - we are all with you now. Being strong overcame the Nazis; being strong overcame the Irish terrorists, being strong will overcome the Arab Fundamentalists.

Maori Government?

All this business in Gisborne with Maori "police" demanding money from business owners is just thuggery. (I should point out that "police" terminology is what has been reported by moteliers and the media. The Maori Government call them "security officers".)

You see, these "police" are representitives of the Maori Government of New Zealand. Sue Nikora, who is the Prime Minister of the Maori Government, claims that the Treaty of Waitangi gives her the right to have a separate Government.

Obviously, she has never actually read the Treaty. Clause 1 in both Maori and English versions of the Treaty cede Soverignty / Government to the Crown.

Clause 2 of the Treaty gives Maori the right to own their property (Tino Rangitiri Tanga translates to "Cheiftainship") - i.e. not to have it confiscated. Interestingly, this clause omits any mention of Cheiftainship over Maori people, in both the English and Maori versions.

Clause 3 of the Treaty is the most enlightened. It gave Maori the rights of British citizens. Among these was to have the right of protection from people using force to remove money from you unfairly.

So, the Treaty makes us all equal before the law. So congratulations to the Police for arresting these "police" and their organiser.

I only have one question - if I was an MP I would be asking a written question of the Minister of Maori Affairs. How much money has been granted to Te Awa Mapara Trust by Te Puni Kokiri in each year since 1999? It would be interesting to find out how much money Sue Nikora's trust has recieved.

Are Labour playing dirty pool?

Today's Dominion Post "Letters to the Editor" section kicks off with two well written letters - one from Holly Reardon, the other from Michael Hughes. Both criticise National about tax cuts.

On re-reading the two letters I couldn't help but be struck by the similarities between them. Both use similar messages:

Michael Hughes.	Holly Reardon.
It's time National fronted up with honesty and integrity	It worries me when someone won't front up about their intentions
Remember hospital part charges, bulk funding, the iniquitious student loans scheme, the neglect of our rail and roading networks and the cuts to welfare benefits and superannuation in real terms?	This says to me that National knows its tax cuts for the rich and business will actually cost "mainstream" New Zealanders in very tangible ways.
What's National Hiding? Why is it so afraid of our scrutiny? Perhaps there are unpleasant surprises in store that it would rather not disclose.	Why is National scared to be honest about what it is offering? Is it because most New Zealanders stand to lose out under its policy?

The letters both have a similar structure -
Statement of concern by the writer;
A rhetorical question about how bad National was when in government previously;
A statement criticising tax cuts as a bad idea for middle New Zealand
A statement criticising Don Brash or National as either untrustworthy or unworthy of government.

It looks to me that the letters were written by the same person, probably a Labour Spin Doctor, then sent to selected Labour activists who are willing to submit the letters for publication.

This has all the hallmarks of the British Labour Party's campaign strategy for dominating Letters to the Editor - Get a professional to write the letter then get a local activist to publish it under their name. This was uncovered, along with a host of other Spin Doctor tactics to avoid real scrutiny by the media, in Britain's Channel 4 Documentary "Undercover in New Labour"*.

I Googled both Holly Reardon (I drew a blank there) and Michael Hughes. While "Michael Hughes" is not an uncommon name there was a "Michael Hughes" who worked in Mark Burton's Ministerial Office in 2001. Coincidence?

If you're involved in politics, you might think "so, what!". For years all parties have encouraged activists to send in letters to the editor. Labour are just taking this to a new level. But do you want elections to be won on who can tell the best lies and who fights the dirtiest?

(A scanned image of the letters is below.)

* Channel 4 Journalist Jenny Kleeman worked as a volunteer at the Labour Party media unit and recorded her experience with hidden cameras. Among her findings:

Letters were drafted and sent out to Labour activists to sign and send to local newspapers. One time, an identical letter was published two weeks in a row in the same paper, but under different names. (Kleeman had written the letter.) Other letters were drafted for spokesmen of certain Labour-aligned organisations praising government organisations within their area of interest for how well they were run, but not mentioning their links to the Labour Party.

She was used as part of rent-a-crowd at one media event where journalists were told the crowd was part of the local community. At another event, she was used as part of a crowd to act as a physical sheild to prevent Tony Blair being questioned by the national media present.

Labour would orgainise "Spontaneous Protests" at Conservative events. The protesters would show up with banners created by the local Labour media unit (usually with the same handwriting) then disappear once they had gotten media coverage of the protest.

Tony Blair would not announce where his publicity events were until the morning of the event - only television, which had their own helicopters and do not do in-depth pieces because of time restraints - and local papers based in the same region - who did not have experienced political reporters able to see past the spin - would cover the events.

For more details on the documentary see: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/05/22/nlab22.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/05/22/ixportal.html and http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,176-1622515,00.html

How times change

Now I'm back I've spent some time catching up on politics in NZ for the past two months. And what a two months it's been - Here's a quote from the Trans-Tasman Newsletter on 19 May.

"The Polls say Labour is still in front by a decent margin, no worries there. But Don Brash isn't getting any traction.

Hmmmmm ...

I am like Honest Abe.

Spotted this in Kiwiblog - a test to determine which US President you are most like.

What Famous Leader Are You?
personality tests by similarminds.com

They also have a test "What Classic Movie are you?":

What Classic Movie Are You?
personality tests by similarminds.com

Safely Home

We're home and very tired. Got home, got the bags inside and went to bed. Lots of washing to do today!

The flight home was uneventful - there were lots of Brits on the plane from Hong Kong and some of the same Brits on the flight from Auckland.

The view on the way into Wellington was great, you could see all the way out to Farewell Spit and Golden Bay clearly. Flying over the suburbs and the city made me remember what a great place Wellington is.

Big thanks to Rose for bringing us home from the airport.