Just What She Deserves

I volunteered at the 'Fashion Show' in the Beehive. After all the crap Donna Awatere-Huata pulled over that, two years and nine months is probably not enough. (There's a lot more to that story!)

I do feel sorry for her younger children - they're now without their mother. But it is Donna's fault why she's been separated from them.

Start Spreading the News, I'm Leaving today ...

As seen on Kiwiblog:

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Taito Philip Field - Insider Trading

Taito Philip Field is in the news again. He was approached by a family unable to make payments on their mortgage due to the death of their mother and ill health of their father. A mortgagee sale was due to be made in a few days. So how does Philip Field help - he buys the home, with cash, for $250,000. As the sale is immediate and for cash the family accept.

Now, if Field had just happened upon the house for sale and discovered that a cash offer with quick settlement would get the property then I would be all for it. But Field was approached for help as an MP, learned of the situation and used that knowledge gained as an MP to purchase the property. It's called insider trading - using knowledge gained in the course of your normal duties for your financial benefit.

If you work for a bank, or broker, or insurance company and you do this you get fired. End of story. So Field has to go.

Screeeech!

A record one-month trade deficit ($1.1 Billion) has been annouced today. That's the trade deficit, not the current account deficit (which you add movements of money).

So far today, the NZ Dollar has from an open this morning of USD 0.686 to USD 0.680 and the TWI fell from 69.55 to 69.15.

The 90 Day Bill Rate, 3 Yr Bond and 10 Yr Bond have all risen this month.

Oil prices remain high.

Apartment prices in Auckland, particularly smaller (under 50sqm) are falling. (It seems the only one making a profit from Auckland housing is Taito Philip Field.)

It almost looks like losing this election was a blessing - I'd hate to be the Finance Minister charting a course through this mess.

Hubbard's Factory Burns Down

I wish. Only an oven caught fire.

It's a shame it didn't destroy the factory so all his workers (which are reportedly paid below market rate) can get better paying jobs elsewhere.

Greenpeace and Me

Just about every day I run into some Greenpeace hack trying to sign up members in Manners Mall. Most of them know not to waste their time with me, as my standard response to a request to assist Greenpeace is: "I'd rather swallow razor blades." (Thanks, Todd ;-) )

Yesterday, they were by Civic Square as I walked past - this time promoting wind energy. When asked I advised them that I supported wind and would have some Baked Beans for lunch.

I'm a Nat for Equality

Some West Auckland Nats have set up a pressure group called NATFORT - Nats for the Treaty. They want to overturn existing National Party policy on the Treaty and return it to the existing 'PC' model.

The Treaty is a wonderful document - it promised Maori that they could keep undisturbed ownership over their property until they wanted to sell. It also promised that Maori would get the same protection and opportunities from the Crown as other New Zealanders. In return, the Crown got to establish Government in New Zealand.

I don't deny that the Crown broke it's end of the agreement - for over a century, Maori were excluded from opportunities. Land and other property was confiscated without compensation. It is totally appropriate that the Crown make an apology and return stolen property or make a monetary compensation when the property is no longer available.

But now it's time to honour the agreement. Government Agencies should treat all New Zealanders equally. As an example, it disturbs me that Workbrokers at WINZ get more performance 'points' for placing a Pacific Islander or Maori unemployed person than a non-Pacific Islander or Maori. This leads to some getting more resource - based on race, not need. (In this example, I'd assess every jobseeker and award performance points on how hard it is to place a jobseeker - e.g. a jobseeker with a degrees would earn less points than someone who dropped out of school not able to read.)

The other aspect is the removal of separate Maori Cultural and Development funding. Once again, I am comfortable with this. Most New Zealanders no longer identify with many British or European cultural traditions. We do appreciate New Zealand Culture, which Maori Culture is indelibly a major part - almost dominant. You just cannot class a Maori Meeting House, or a Poi Dance, or a traditional Maori Sculpture as being less culturally significant to New Zealand than a 'Swan Lake' ballet or a 'Braying Portaloo'.

Once again, money for Development is something I am comfortable with being not being separate. Some communities have high needs in education, health or housing. The idea that a non-Maori who lives in Cannons Creek or Tologa Bay deserve less funding in these areas than their next door neighbour (all other things being equal) is absurbed.

New Zealanders believe in everyone having a fair go. The NATFORT group should stand for that, not a return to inequality based on race.

No Surpirses Here!

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No surprise - last week I argued that the Government should let us take the brunt for the huge current account deficit (in order to change our ways) so I wasn't expecting to be a Socialist!

The Ranfurly Shield Jinx

Wellington have now lost 10 challenges in a row - the last three results against Canterbury have been a last minute loss, a draw, and a 1-point loss.

Friday nights game shows what is so good about the Ranfurly Sheild. If only NPC points had been on offer, no team in the world would have withstood the Wellington onslaught. But the sheild makes you defend just a little bit longer, tackle a bit harder, and run a bit faster.

Am I disappointed that Wellington lost - course I am. But I'm also glad that the Ranfurly Shield is still such a hard bugger to win. When we eventually do win it, it will be so much sweeter.

Review of my picks from January

Back on 7 January I previewed the election and made some bold calls:

ACT will be back with a similar number of MPs as it currently has. (Maybe one or two less)
I had anticipated that ACT would get about 5% to 5.5% - but I guess the prediction was almost true. ACT are back, but with fewer MPs. It would have helped ACT if independent polling (i.e. not commisioned by ACT) in Epsom showed the result was closer.

National will get more votes than Labour. (But not many more)
This one was close, but Labour got not many more that National. My thinking was that Labour would be able to form a Government as it would be able to stitch together enough support - which is what has happened.

NZ First will be the biggest minor party.
This prediction was hardly rocket science - but Winston Peters made such a bad run in this election he almost became the only party to disappear from Parliament.

United Future will be back with a similar number of MPs.
Didn't get this one right. I expected Peter Dunne's empty nice sounding slogans would have grabbed the attention of the public again, but he didn't get any coverage except for his joint application to the high court to get onto TV3s debate.

Maori Party will create an overhang by getting 1% of the popular vote and winning 5 seats.
They only won 4 seats but I was correct about the overhang.

Progressives will have 4 MPs
I thought Jim Anderton's conservative approach and soft explanation for business welfare ('jobs machine') would resonate more. But it seems the ex-Alliance voters still haven't forgiven Jim. Doesn't look like they ever will. So a big fat wrong for that prediction.

However, compared to other pundits I didn't do so bad - especially as I made these calls almost seven months ago.

Budget Surplus and Current Account Deficits

This post began as a comment on Jordan Carter's post earlier today - it just grew and grew so I think it deserved it's own post on my blog. Jordan was arguing that the Government Surplus was acting as a buffer to the Current Account deficit.

While this is true, the massive surplus is having unintended consequences. With the Government borrowing less interest rates are being kept low. Lower interest rates are fuelling investment in residential property. Investment in residential property is being financed with debt. The amount of debt New Zealanders hold is creating the massive current account deficit.

So, Cullen has to keep increasing the size of the surplus to avoid interest rates spiking on the higher risk of lending in New Zealand Dollars.

By sitting on the huge surplus, Cullen is rewarding in the short-term those that borrow. If he was to reduce taxes, interest rates would rise, and residential property would not provide the rate of return it does now. Investment would diversify into other sectors, providing a more stable economy in the long term.

What Cullen is doing now is the same short-sighted Government intervention that has happened repeatedly over the past century. Following the 1929 Stock Market Crash, the US Treasury should have allowed the US Dollar to lower in value to compensate for the US Economy moving into recession. Imports would have fallen, exports would have risen and the recession would have not become the Great Depression.

The same goes for the Asian Currency Crisis in 1998. Asian Central Banks kept insisting that they had sufficient reserves to cover the outfolw of funds and kept propping up their currencies - then would have to go to the IMF for Emergency Funding as they had simply reduced the losses of foreign investors as they withdrew money from the economies. If they had not intervened, foreign investors would have faced a choice - lose the lot, or leave your funds in and wait for a recovery.

So by buffering us against the effects of the Current Account deficit, Dr Cullen is dooming us to a bigger shock when it eventually comes. If we were facing higher interest rates, a low dollar and slower economic growth - well, would you put $10,000 on the credit card to holiday in Europe? Of course not, and that would begin to even out the deficit.

The Blokes MP

Tauranga Mayor Stuart Crosby has said that he 'will not tolerate behaviour by controversial new MP Bob Clarkson that harms the city's image'.

As a kiwi bloke, I'm gald we've got a plain-speaking MP - someone who is prepared to stand up in Parliament and say 'What a load of bollocks!' every time the Government, or opposition proposes some multi-million scheme that will acheive nothing tangible.

I like the idea of an MP who will not issue a 20 paragraph condemnation that requires a legal degree to understand what they're saying. If Tauranga don't want him, he's welcome in Lower Hutt.

The only certainty is uncertainty

While most commentators have been focusing on the diverse set of parties that Labour has to deal with, there is another dimension to the story - the expiry of the Electoral (Integrity) Act and it's effect on 'Party Hoppers' (aka Waka Jumpers).

Take the last Parliament - it was widely rumoured that one United Future MP was so unhappy with supporting Labour that he refused to vote on certain legislation - for instance, the increased duties on mid-alcohol spirits. The refusal to vote didn't threaten the Government, so it went mostly unreported in the media.

So why didn't this MP quit United Future and vote against the Government? Simple - the Electoral (Integrity) Act. If the MP voted for a motion of no-confidence he'd have been out of Parliament so quick that Helen Clark would have been able to convince the GG that she could get a majority back within a week. A hiccup, but no barrier to completing the term. (Not withstanding Donna tactics.)

But this time around the Electoral (Integrity) Act has expired. Any MP from any party can jump party to party and not have to worry about being expelled from Parliament. So any independently minded Maori Party, NZ First or United MP could vote against Labour without serious sanction. Also, any Labour MP can jump ship to a rival party (or start their own) and not face the prospect of a by-election or expulsion.

Helen Clark is going to have such a difficult job of managing not only her caucus, but the caucuses of the Maori Party, the Greens, NZ First and United Future - almost 70 MPs. Quite a job!

Things I'm mad about!

1. There was a totally untrue and defamatory document circulating in Wellingon regarding a National MP - I was given a copy, on consultation with a senior National official was told that it had already been in the media and found to be untrue.

2. Mallard attacked me at a candidates meeting calling me a ring-in who goes around the region trying to upset Labour candidates. If Mallard doesn't want me as a constituent then he should resign.

3. Some good people are not MPs - especially from ACT, National and United Future.

4. Most of the staff at ACT are now looking for new jobs. They're the best people I ever worked with, the most fun workplace I've ever been at, and the most thoroughly disreputable bunch of people on the planet. When's the farewell, guys - will 'Wellington' ever be the same?

Advice to Incoming National MPs

Get on the phone and call the ex-ACT staff this morning - they're a good, hard working bunch of people. I recommend all of them.

Hutt South Result - my feelings

After six months of planning with all those early mornings and all those late nights, we lost Hutt South. I'm not too unhappy about that as I had promised to run the length of High Street in a tutu if we'd won.

On reflection, a lack of credible left-wing candidates cost us any chance of winning - Mallard's vote remained static from last election. If the Greens had stood a sitting MP or a higher profile candidate we may have had an outside chance.

But we had some sucesses - we trimmed Mallard's majority by almost 3000 votes; we almost doubled the party vote; and we had some great fun along the way.

Looking forward to repeating it all again next year. ;-)

This Post is bought to you by the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy

Get out and Vote!

Vote early.

Vote often.

But most importantly:


VOTE NATIONAL

Not so much an election as a referendum

This weekends election is less and less about the direction of this country - a phony election, if you will. All that has happened is National and Labour have slung as much mud as possible (some of it sticking) to try and beat this up to a real contest.

Both Labour and National both have the same broad view of how to manage the economy. While there are differences, they are mostly cosmetic. There is no radicalism being preached - no major upheavals of hospital management, no major upheavals in Education. (Labour have even, to an extent, copied/adopted National's Tertiary and Adult Learning Policies.) There is no promises to change the direction of economic management as the current direction has worked well since 1993.

So this election has come down to one issue - the Budget Surplus and what to do about it. National favour returning it to those who earned in the first place, Labour wants to spend some on assistance for more people in health and targeting assistance to families.

So this weekends election is not really an election. Which is why this election is so close. It's not a measure of Government performance over the past three years, it's not about the public trusting Brash more than Clark. This election is a referendum on whether we want tax cuts or not.

As an aside, the surplus is so large that it has caused policy distortions. If Labour is elected, an MP with 5 kids and a stay-at-home partner can qualify for assistance. (I checked it on Labour's Calculator.) National's Tax Cuts are not modest - the maximum that 85% of taxpayers will pay is 19% Income Tax.

Political Beliefs vs Personality

Span has posted an update to the NZ Bloggers Politcal Compass - Span is looking for the link between personality and political persausion. My results are:

Political Compass results
Left/Right: +10.00
Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.26

IPIP-NEO results
EXTRAVERSION: 50
Friendliness 56
Gregariousness 55
Assertiveness 53
Activity Level 70
Excitement-Seeking 26
Cheerfulness 27

AGREEABLENESS: 60
Trust 79
Morality 39
Altruism 45
Co-operation 80
Modesty 35
Sympathy 52

CONSCIENTIOUSNESS: 72
Self-Efficacy 67
Orderliness 57
Dutifulness 66
Achievement-Striving 56
Self-Discipline 77
Cautiousness 72

NEUROTICISM: 31
Anxiety 6
Anger 20
Depression 38
Self-Consciousness 58
Immoderation 38
Vulnerability 68

OPENNESS TO EXPERIENCE: 19
Imagination 1
Artistic Interests 22
Emotionality 32
Adventurousness 48
Intellect 59
Liberalism 34

Electorate Predictions

Okay - here's my predictions for the electorate winners next weekend. Changes are in BOLD.

LABOUR-36
Auckland Central	Banks Penisula	Christchurch Central	Christchurch East
Dunedin North	Dunedin South	East Coast	Hamilton West
Hutt South	Mana	Mangere	Manukau East
Manurewa	Maungakiekie	Mt Albert	Mt Roskill
Napier	New Lynn	New Plymouth	Otaki
Palmerston North	Rimutaka	Rongotai	Rotorua
Taupo	Te Atatu	Tukituki	Waimakariri
Wairarapa	Waitakere	Wellington Central	West Coast/Tasman
Ikaroa-Rawhiti	Tainui	Te Tai Tonga	Waiariki

NATIONAL-28
Aoraki	Bay of Plenty	Clevedon	Clutha-Southland
Coromandel	East Coast Bays	Epsom	Hamilton East
Helensville	Ilam	Invercargill	Kaikoura
Nelson	North Shore	Northcote	Northland
Otago	Pakuranga	Paiko	Port Waikato
Rakaia	Rangitikei	Rodney	Tamaki
Taranaki-King Country	Tauranga	Whanganui	Whangerei

MAORI PARTY-3
Tamaki Makaurau	Te Tai Tokerau	Te Tai Hauarau

UNITED FUTURE-1
Ohariu-Belmont

PROGRESSIVES-1
Wigram

ACT, Greens, and NZ First do not win any electorate seats.

Help someone recoup some tax - thanks Trev.

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Alternatively, you can get Taxpayer-funded electioneering items from your local Labour Candidate!

Sick of all this

I'm sick of this - my tonsilitis, not the election. I used to get it regularly in my early twenties, but for the past 10 years I've avoided it. Thankfully the swelling is going down today so I think I'll be back into it tomorrow.

Maxim Wellington Meeting

Last night I attended a candidates meeting in Wellington Central - not the Aro Valley meeting but the Maxim meeting at Elim Church.

During the meeting the National Party Representitive Rosemarie Thomas held up a number of Labour Electioneering items available on the information table outside and told everyone that they had been paid for by the taxpayer. Proof was the crest on the items.

The person who got the best laugh out of the audience was Lesley Soper - She called Dr Michael Cullen a man of great economic prowess who is better than anyone else to manage the economy.

After the meeting I got talking to the 'Democrats for Social Credit' man who advised me that the privately owned banks in NZ should be kicked out and the Reserve Bank provide interest free loans for everyone. His reasoning was that the private banks 'make money up out of nothing' and therefore the Reserve Bank should do it and not charge interest.

The only problem with his theory is that banks don't make money out of nothing. If they could, why lend it out? If you can make money out of nothing you just give it to the shareholders and they'd be happy, and you wouldn't need all those expensive bank branches everywhere.

Feeling Blue?

Two weeks ago I was feeling blue - National was down to 33% in the NBR Poll. The Herald Poll published on the same day was a substantial lead to Labour.

I thought National could never pull back from such a big gap.

Now, two weeks later, the situation is reversed - National are ahead and Labourites are the ones down in the dumps.

Now the acid goes on National. Can they sustain the lead, or will they fall back, just like Labour did over the past fortnight?

"Stick it too them" Day

On Friday I recieved an email advising that I could stick it to big oil companies by not buying petrol on Monday. The logic in the email is flawed - if I don't buy Petrol today, then I will just buy it tomorrow.

If you want to 'stick it' to Oil Companies, don't use their products. Buy a cycle, catch a trolley bus or electric train, or walk. Simple.

In the meantime, don't clog up my inbox with stupid emails.

Frog Blog Poll of Polls

Green Party blog Frog Blog publishes a Poll of Polls on it's website showing Labour leading on 41.2% and National behind on 39.1%. Early in the campaign I thought the methodology was sound - the older the poll gets, the lower the weighting. Also the sample size effects the weighting.

But now the election is moving much quicker than the oldest polls in the weighting reflect. The average includes the two week old NBR poll which had National on 33%. Even then, the NBR poll looked like a rogue poll with most other polls at that time putting National on 37-39%. That poll will stay in the calculation until next Friday at least, possibly until the eve of the election.

So I redid the calculations, discarding the NBR poll. And it shows that National and Labour are neck and neck on 41% each. And National is the party that is rising.

For my interest

At a candidates meeting this week the ACT Candidate pointed out that no government since the 1951 National Party had ever achieved 50% of the vote. I always thought that statement was slightly misleading as under MMP 45% of the vote should give you a majority as 10% of votes don't count as they are cast towards parties that don't make the 5% threshhold.

But it turns out that I was wrong. Even if MMP was in existance at every election since 1951, only in 1972 did any party achieve half of the 'valid' votes - Labour in 1972 would have been entitled to 60 out of the 120 seats in parliament, still unable to form a Government unless they nominated a Social Credit or National MP as speaker.

I've created a table to show the outcome if each election was MMP. (And all the votes were the same.) It's all hypothetical, for instance Labour would have presumable lead a coalition with Social Credit in the 1950s when National actually governed. How would have voters reacted to that Government?

Abbreviations are:

Nat = Mational
Lab = Labour
SC/D = Social Credit, then Democrats after 1987
Val/Gr = Values, then Greens after 1990
NZP = New Zealand Party
NLP/A = New Labour Party, then Alliance for 1993
NZF = New Zealand First

More Labour Lies

Today' s DomPost has an ad from Labour stating National's promises cost $7 billion dollars. They then state that National will borrow $3.5b to pay for the cuts and the rest will come from service cuts.

This morning I woke up to a radio ad for Labour which claimed tax cuts will be funded from asset sales. (I was a little groggy, so maybe I didn't hear it all.)

Of course, Labour never mentions the $8.5 billion surplus as being the source of the cuts.

Liars!